Rising Turbulence in the Skies: Causes and Solutions
Turbulence is one of the most common airline accident types seen today, according to the National Transportation Safety Board. Just last week, 25 people were taken to hospitals after a Delta flight experienced severe turbulence, causing service carts and unbelted passengers to hit the ceiling and forcing an emergency landing. In June, an American Airlines flight faced a similar issue.
Airplane navigating through turbulent skies
Research from the University of Reading indicates that severe clear-air turbulence (CAT) has increased by 55% over the North Atlantic and 41% over the USA since 1979. This invisible form of turbulence, undetectable by standard aircraft radar, is becoming more frequent due to climate change. Atmospheric science professor Paul Williams explains that Earth's warming temperatures are exacerbating flying conditions, particularly along busy flight paths near powerful jet streams fast-moving air currents at cruising altitudes of around 35,000 feet.
"Climate change is warming the air to the south of the jet stream a lot more rapidly than the air to the north of the jet stream," Williams explains. This temperature disparity intensifies wind shear variations in wind speed and direction with altitude leading to more frequent and severe CAT, which lacks visual cues like storms or clouds, striking unexpectedly.
Jet stream contributing to atmospheric turbulence
"A stronger jet stream has what we call more wind shear in it. That's the wind speed increasing with altitude. And more wind shear equals more turbulence. So that's the link from temperatures to the jet stream to the winds to the turbulence," Williams elaborates. A 2025 study in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences projects that wind shear will increase by 16–27% and atmospheric stability will decline by 10–20% from 2015 to 2100, creating conditions highly favorable for CAT.
According to the National Transportation Safety Board, between 2009 and 2018, flight crews had no warning in about 28% of turbulence-related accidents. From 2009 to 2022, turbulence caused 163 injuries requiring hospitalization on commercial airlines and 38 deaths on private planes in the US alone, costing the aviation industry $150–500 million annually due to structural damage, flight delays, and injuries. Williams, who has studied the topic for over a decade, warns that these numbers will continue to rise as global warming intensifies.
Despite the challenges, experts assert that flying remains safe, and innovative solutions are emerging. Improved forecasting models and artificial intelligence are being developed to identify complex turbulence patterns in high-dimensional data. The International Air Transport Association’s (IATA) Turbulence Aware program, launched in 2018, allows 28 airlines across 2,800 aircraft to share real-time turbulence data, generating 24.8 million reports in the first half of 2025 alone. This data helps pilots make informed decisions, such as rerouting flights or suspending cabin service. Additionally, companies like Turbulence Solutions in Austria are testing “flaplets” on aircraft wings, which adjust to airflow changes to reduce turbulence loads by over 80%, though currently only on smaller aircraft.
Advanced technology aiding in turbulence forecasting
Looking ahead, researchers like Joana Medeiros from the University of Reading emphasize that turbulence strong enough to pose injury risks could double or triple by the end of the century, particularly under high-emission scenarios. However, advancements in weather modeling, real-time data sharing, and aircraft design offer hope for mitigating these risks, ensuring safer and smoother flights in an increasingly turbulent atmosphere.
0 Comments